Rice imports no longer needed by 2000 – if policies are right

     Barring any major weather disturbances such as El Niño, the Philippines is likely to experience low net imports – or none at all – by the year 2000 if the Estrada administration takes off from where its predecessor is leaving, so says Roger Concepcion, director of the Bureau of Soils and Water Management.
     This means focusing on irrigated areas to achieve the targeted yield of five metric tons (MT) of rice per hectare using a mix of production strategies.
     “It can be done for so long as there is discipline,” Mr. Concepcion said in an interview. “Provide access to seeds, make irrigation work, etc.” In fact, there are farms in Agusan del Sur, Davao del Sur and Zamboanga that have attained yields beyond seven MT per hectare.
     The formula is known here, and has been tried out but not on a massive scale, said Mr. Concepcion. Mr. Estrada does not have to go to China (he announced earlier he intends to study China’s agriculture program) to begin with, he added.
     However, there remains the pressing issue of lack of farm-to-market roads which was not adequately addressed by the Ramos government. This is complicated by a rice trading system that compromises farmers’ options.
     “It could not seem sensible for (a farmer who lives five kilometers from the nearest road) to grow surplus rice when he will have to bring it by foot and be at the mercy of traders who know that (a farmer) has no choice but sell at their (the traders’) price,” economist Ramon Clarete said in an earlier interview.
     He agreed the technology is available. “But for as long as the marketing system is inefficient because of high marketing costs, then there’s little incentive for farmers to complement appropriate management on their part.”
     Mr. Clarete said the Ramos administration should be credited for having trimmed down investment backlogs in irrigation, “although we have, according to NIA (National Irrigation Administration), something like a potential for another million hectares of low-land arable areas (to be irrigated).”
     However, Mr. Concepcion is gung ho that with what has been done so far, the rice farming sector is on its way to achieving self-sufficiency. He cautioned, however, that the incoming administration has to brace itself for possible difficulties in the latter part of the year.
     “There is a serious potential threat to food security given the converging impact of  (weather anomalies) El Niño and La Niña. Standing crop is seriously threatened by any single typhoon in August or September (once a La Niña episode eventually occurs),” he said.
     La Niña, an offshoot of El Niño, is characterized by excessive rainfall and has, in fact, substantially damaged agriculture economies in South America and certain Western countries.
But the new administration still has a way around this threat, said Mr. Concepcion, “(Mr.) Estrada should immediately work on the release of a special fund of P3 billion allocated for La Niña-mitigating measures.”
     Part of this can be used to intensify extension of production inputs in areas deemed not extremely vulnerable to floods and excessive rains, and to ensure these areas can offset projected losses in threatened rice lands, he added. Although adverse weather conditions have increasingly become a pestering concern of rice production, it appears the agriculture sector is not wanting of measures to survive.
     And for the new administration to make good its pledge of licking perennial rice shortages, it may only be a matter of outperforming its predecessor and providing the resources to make sure that what it planned will actually be done.

Romulo T. Luib